Security Radar 2025: Latvia

Half of respondents see Russia as a threat for Europe. Around 53%, above the average, see the EU as vulnerable without US support. Furthermore, 74% believe that Latvia lacks sufficient defensive capabilities and could not defend itself if Russia declared war, the second-highest figure in the poll alongside Georgia. Both are comparatively small countries directly neighbouring Russia.

A majority (77%) view the end of the war against Ukraine as essential for improving European security. Concerns about Russia as a threat to European security remain high at 71%. By stark contrast, the Russian-speaking minority’s perception is just 8%. What’s more, within this minority, perceptions of a US threat rise significantly to 52%, compared with 28% of the total population. 

Perceptions of NATO enlargement towards the Russian border and of the EU towards the East diverge from those of the other polled countries. Latvians tend not to view them as a threat to European security, while concerns are rising in other surveyed countries. Support for diplomacy as a means of resolving foreign policy crises has decreased, from 69% in 2021 to 58% in 2024. Reluctance toward military intervention in conflicts remains high, with 67% rejecting it, the same level as 2021.

For leadership in EU security, the trio of Germany, France, and Poland is most commonly seen as the leading force (36%), although 21% responded ‘don’t know’. Support for an EU Army remains consistent at 50% and has not increased since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nearly 70% express a desire for greater independence from the US. To stabilise European security after the war, 38% advocate that Latvia should foster channels of communication with Russia.
Russian-speaking minority tends to be more pro-Russian, sees media reporting as not objective and shows less support for Ukraine.

The study shows strong public support for increased defence spending. At the same time, however, there are concerns that resources for social cohesion may be insufficient. Notably, 48 per cent of all respondents support a special tax on the wealthy to meet military spending requirements. Maintaining Europe’s defence capability will not only depend on military build-up but also on democratic and societal resilience. Striking a balance between defence and social spending will therefore be crucial for sustaining societal cohesion in democracies as they navigate geopolitical tensions.

Both in Russia and Ukraine there is a clear desire for negotiations to bring an end to the war. In Russia, 62 per cent believe that their country has become stronger as a result of the war against Ukraine. However, a majority of 52 per cent of respondents below 40 years of age would recognise Ukrainian sovereignty, and 44 per cent of Russians under 30 years of age attribute the responsibility for the war to Russia. For Russians in general, the United States remains the clear adversary to their country.

For Latvians a majority (77%) view the end of the war against Ukraine as essential for improving European security. Concerns about Russia as a threat to European security remain high at 71%. By stark contrast, the Russian-speaking minority’s perception is just 8%. What’s more, within this minority, perceptions of a US threat rise significantly to 52%, compared with 28% of the total population. Perceptions of NATO enlargement towards the Russian border and of the EU towards the East diverge from those of the other polled countries. Latvians tend not to view them as a threat to European security, while concerns are rising in other surveyed countries. Support for diplomacy as a means of resolving foreign policy crises has decreased, from 69% in 2021 to 58% in 2024. Reluctance toward military intervention in conflicts remains high, with 67% rejecting it, the same level as 2021. For leadership in EU security, the trio of Germany, France, and Poland is most commonly seen as the leading force (36%), although 21% responded ‘don’t know’. Support for an EU Army remains consistent at 50% and has not increased since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nearly 70% express a desire for greater independence from the US. To stabilise European security after the war, 38% advocate that Latvia should foster channels of communication with Russia.